Demand Forecasting for Small Shops – Simple Methods

Even simple forecasting improves ordering.

Part of our inventory management guide.

Basic Methods

1. Last year same period – Diwali last year = guide for this Diwali
2. Moving average – Average of last 3–6 months
3. Trend – Up or down based on recent months

Factor In

• Seasonality – Festivals, weather, school reopening
• Events – Local fairs, elections
• Competition – New shop opened nearby?

Keep It Simple

Start with last-year comparison. Adjust for growth or decline. Days of stock calculator shows how long current stock lasts.